All times UTC. We hold hour-by-hour fixtures for 61 days; the archive begins 26 August 2026 and grows by a day every day. Counts are of calls we settled on this day - a strike rate is not a profit, and the full record with its real denominator is on the track record. In-play momentum strategies are included, matched to their fixture by id. We publish the 300 most recently settled, so on a busy day this is a partial view of them rather than the whole one.
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Our record in every market we have settled, and what our own record says does not work.
Our record by market
7 markets with a settled record
Every single pick we have settled, pre-match and in-play, by market, the strongest rate first. These are all-time records, not today’s.
Over 1.5 goals
Two or more goals in the match
75.8%
16,880 of 22,283
Double chance, home or draw
The home side wins or it is a draw
73.8%
12,433 of 16,843
Double chance, draw or away
The away side wins or it is a draw
69.0%
5,640 of 8,168
Over 2.5 goals
Three or more goals in the match
54.5%
12,718 of 23,316
Both teams to score
Each side scores at least one
51.5%
11,929 of 23,174
Home win
The home side wins in 90 minutes
50.7%
8,547 of 16,843
Away win
The away side wins in 90 minutes
46.3%
3,780 of 8,168
71,927 of 118,795 single picks landed across every market (60.5%). Markets clear at very different rates, so they are never averaged together. A strike rate is not a profit. Every market we price.
Avoid
What our own record says does not work
17in 100
Long shots. 112 of 663 picks priced 3.00 or longer landed, the ten a day our model rated best against the price, 11 July to 16 September.
Our model said51
The prices said21
Landed17
050100 in 100
Markets the score has already settled
Over 1.5 goals at 2-0 has already happened. A price may still show; there is nothing left to back. We leave these out of our record and count them here.
4,882of123,677
single picks left out (4%)
4,660of31,097
in-play calls left out (15%)
3,251goal line passed
1,278both had scored
330after full time
Why the single picks were decided. These 3 reasons cover 4,859 of the 4,882.
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